USGCRP Selects Scenarios for Next National Climate Assessment

May 5, 2015
Washington, D.C.

(Excerpts cross-posted from, as written by Cat Wolner, USGCRP)

The USGCRP has selected a set of emissions scenarios and related climate projections to focus on for the next quadrennial report of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). These scenarios and projections will provide a consistent basis to assess the potential future impacts of climate change on social and ecological systems, as well as how those impacts may interact with policy choices.

The selection of scenarios for the next NCA provides a coherent framework for the report and related sustained assessment products. USGCRP is announcing these selections

(1) to provide the research community as much lead time as possible to incorporate them in studies that may inform the next NCA report, and

(2) to give user groups, including Federal agencies, an early signal of the report’s direction. 

Consistent with previous NCAs, the next NCA will leverage scenarios and model output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC):

To learn more: